2018 · WC

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

16·15

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.039
  • 46.2%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.11CPOE+2.41
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.96
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:00950Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:32824Punt3–0
PHIQ1 5:0132Punt3–0
CHIQ1 3:2936Punt3–0
PHIQ1 2:28753Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 14:21732Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 9:38854Turnover3–3
CHIQ2 5:1831Punt3–3
PHIQ2 4:1034Punt3–3
CHIQ2 2:381273Field goal3–6
CHIQ3 15:00838Punt3–6
PHIQ3 9:43931Touchdown10–6
CHIQ3 5:2039Punt10–6
PHIQ3 3:47523Punt10–6
CHIQ3 1:33562Field goal10–9
PHIQ4 14:1339Punt10–9
CHIQ4 12:00680Touchdown10–15
PHIQ4 9:04615Punt10–15
CHIQ4 7:023-2Punt10–15
PHIQ4 4:481260Touchdown16–15
CHIQ4 0:56433Missed field goal16–15
PHIQ4 0:0500End of half16–15

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles25/4026622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles13211.60
Wendell Smallwood8202.50
Josh Adams122.00
Nick Foles1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery69820
Zach Ertz57520
Golden Tate58461
Nelson Agholor36320
Wendell Smallwood23200
Dallas Goedert24201
Darren Sproles23140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/4330310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard10353.50
Taylor Gabriel22010.00
Mitchell Trubisky393.00
Benny Cunningham122.00
Tarik Cohen100.00
Taquan Mizzell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson10131431
Taylor Gabriel49370
Josh Bellamy11340
Anthony Miller35340
Tarik Cohen35270
Ben Braunecker22150
Adam Shaheen34130
Jordan Howard0100
Taquan Mizzell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.67