Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.039
- 46.2%Success rate46.3%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.11CPOE+2.41
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.96
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 25/40 | 266 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/43 | 303 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 13 | 143 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67