Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.051
- 38.5%Success rate43.3%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.10CPOE+0.38
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.0%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.22Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 17/33 | 147 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | -11 | -5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23/36 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3/3 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 15 | 97 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39