2017 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

3·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.051
  • 38.5%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.093
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.10CPOE+0.38
  • 34.8%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:0735Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:40844Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 6:0410Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 5:5337Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:0700Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:58135Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 3:46416Missed field goal0–7
PHIQ1 1:191161Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 10:5240Punt0–14
PHIQ2 9:21418Field goal0–17
CHIQ2 6:5236Punt0–17
PHIQ2 4:381684Touchdown0–24
CHIQ2 0:0500End of half0–24
CHIQ3 15:001126Field goal3–24
PHIQ3 8:401250Turnover on downs3–24
CHIQ3 2:0332Punt3–24
PHIQ3 1:02668Touchdown3–31
CHIQ4 13:373-5Punt3–31
PHIQ4 12:3931Punt3–31
CHIQ4 11:37828Turnover on downs3–31
PHIQ4 9:38832Turnover3–31
CHIQ4 4:261156Turnover3–31
PHIQ4 1:4200End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky17/3314702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mitchell Trubisky4123.00
Jordan Howard760.90
Benny Cunningham1-1-1.00
Tarik Cohen2-11-5.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman49640
Daniel Brown23200
Tre McBride26200
Kendall Wright25150
Jordan Howard22130
Benny Cunningham1290
Tarik Cohen2280
Adam Shaheen1110
Markus Wheaton0100
Dion Sims11-30

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz23/3622730
Nick Foles3/32100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount15976.50
Carson Wentz5295.80
Corey Clement4276.80
Jay Ajayi5265.20
Nick Foles4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz10121031
Alshon Jeffery59521
Nelson Agholor36321
Torrey Smith45300
Mack Hollins22120
Corey Clement11120
Jay Ajayi1270
Brent Celek0100
Kenjon Barner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39