2026 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

7·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Case Keenum

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • -0.096EPA / play+0.052
  • 37.7%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.082
  • 4.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.40CPOE+5.30
  • 36.2%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 73.9%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.27
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001166Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 8:47539Punt0–7
CHIQ1 6:09829Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:5135Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 1:04712Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 13:591475Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 6:141069Field goal0–10
PHIQ2 1:52867Touchdown7–10
PHIQ3 15:0035Punt7–10
CHIQ3 13:28638Field goal7–13
PHIQ3 10:173-2Punt7–13
CHIQ3 8:36571Touchdown7–20
PHIQ3 5:4739Punt7–20
CHIQ3 3:123-2Punt7–20
PHIQ3 2:33524Turnover7–20
CHIQ3 0:231452Touchdown7–27
PHIQ4 7:19626Turnover on downs7–27
CHIQ4 5:12642End of half7–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2515301
Andy Dalton0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley15825.50
Jalen Hurts4256.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith68650
Dontayvion Wicks25320
Makai Lemon34290
Will Shipley12110
Zach Ertz1290
Tank Bigsby1150
Johnny Mundt1140
Saquon Barkley12-20

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum24/3424720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift20844.20
Kyle Monangai10313.10
Luther Burden III177.00
Case Keenum461.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond67901
Luther Burden III711611
Rome Odunze36440
Colston Loveland44310
Sam Roush11160
D'Andre Swift2340
Zavion Thomas1110
Cole Kmet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84