2022 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

25·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -8.5

Total

48

Model margin

-3.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.039
  • 47.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.070
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.004
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.05CPOE-4.05
  • 46.2%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.43Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001052Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 8:59428Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 7:1978Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:3930Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:09414Punt0–0
PHIQ2 14:52877Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 11:50879Touchdown3–6
PHIQ2 6:4734Turnover3–6
CHIQ2 5:1551Punt3–6
PHIQ2 2:491086Touchdown10–6
CHIQ2 0:432-7End of half10–6
PHIQ3 15:00642Touchdown17–6
CHIQ3 12:193-4Punt17–6
PHIQ3 10:191-13Turnover17–6
CHIQ3 10:07315Touchdown17–13
PHIQ3 8:4538Punt17–13
CHIQ3 7:04318Turnover17–13
PHIQ3 5:43524Turnover on downs17–13
CHIQ3 3:0237Punt17–13
PHIQ3 2:031876Missed field goal17–13
CHIQ4 8:2546Punt17–13
PHIQ4 6:47675Touchdown25–13
CHIQ4 4:20660Touchdown25–20
PHIQ4 2:43316End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts22/3731502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts17613.63
Miles Sanders11423.80
Kenny Gainwell351.70
Quez Watkins242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown9161810
DeVonta Smith581260
Kenny Gainwell2290
Quez Watkins4660
Jack Stoll1160
Zach Pascal0100
Grant Calcaterra0200
Miles Sanders11-130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields14/2115220
Nathan Peterman0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields15956.30
David Montgomery12534.41
Darrynton Evans294.50
Velus Jones Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Pringle22391
David Montgomery33381
Cole Kmet45250
Equanimeous St. Brown11200
Nsimba Webster23140
Dante Pettis14130
Velus Jones Jr.1230
Trestan Ebner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-3.28