Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
48
Model margin
-3.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.039
- 47.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.070
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.004
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.05CPOE-4.05
- 46.2%Third-down rate41.0%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.43Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/37 | 315 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 16 | 181 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 126 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -13 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14/21 | 152 | 2 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Nsimba Webster | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-3.28