2025 · Week 13

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

24·15

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.034
  • 45.7%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.092
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.047
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.48CPOE+3.26
  • 42.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.11
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
CHIQ1 15:001142Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 9:34520Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:571178Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 1:31644Field goal7–3
CHIQ2 13:041468Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 6:4437Punt10–3
CHIQ2 4:5953Punt10–3
PHIQ2 2:47412Punt10–3
CHIQ2 1:36731End of half10–3
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt10–3
CHIQ3 13:49415Punt10–3
PHIQ3 12:2020Turnover10–3
CHIQ3 11:3237Punt10–3
PHIQ3 9:59577Touchdown10–9
CHIQ3 8:05414Turnover10–9
PHIQ3 6:36423Turnover10–9
CHIQ3 4:331292Touchdown17–9
PHIQ4 12:4937Punt17–9
CHIQ4 11:15863Touchdown24–9
PHIQ4 6:191280Touchdown24–15
CHIQ4 3:10713Turnover on downs24–15
PHIQ4 1:12446Missed field goal24–15
CHIQ4 0:0900End of half24–15

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams17/3615411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Monangai221305.91
D'Andre Swift181256.91
Caleb Williams5132.60
DJ Moore11010.00
Luther Burden III133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet33361
Luther Burden III46330
Colston Loveland36280
Olamide Zaccheaus23190
DJ Moore25170
D'Andre Swift12130
Rome Odunze2680
Kyle Monangai0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts19/3423021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13564.30
Jalen Hurts4317.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown10121322
DeVonta Smith58480
Dallas Goedert24270
Jahan Dotson13120
Will Shipley11110
Saquon Barkley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.23