Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.034
- 45.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.092
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.047
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.48CPOE+3.26
- 42.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.32Points / drive2.11
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/36 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | 22 | 130 | 5.9 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 125 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/34 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 12 | 132 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23