2013 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

11·54

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.9%Explosive rate13.5%
  • +4.85CPOE+2.43
  • 42.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.91
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
CHIQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:53638Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:5400Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:42539Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 7:4435Punt0–14
PHIQ1 6:001072Touchdown0–21
CHIQ1 1:27422Punt0–21
PHIQ2 14:44837Punt0–21
CHIQ2 10:261249Punt0–21
PHIQ2 5:06860Field goal0–24
CHIQ2 1:07549Field goal3–24
PHIQ3 15:001144Punt3–26
CHIQ3 10:241-2Safety3–26
PHIQ3 9:52667Touchdown3–33
CHIQ3 7:113-5Punt3–33
PHIQ3 5:34124Turnover3–33
CHIQ3 5:211270Touchdown11–33
PHIQ4 15:00670Touchdown11–40
CHIQ4 11:19733Opp touchdown11–47
CHIQ4 8:0030Punt11–53
PHIQ4 6:24165Touchdown11–54
CHIQ4 6:14937Turnover on downs11–54
PHIQ4 1:1200End of half11–54

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/3522211
Josh McCown2/42000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte9293.20
Michael Bush7202.90
Jay Cutler2157.50
Josh McCown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett58850
Alshon Jeffery69760
Brandon Marshall49361
Matt Forte45250
Earl Bennett23120
Eric Weems1280

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/2523020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy181337.42
Bryce Brown911512.81
Nick Foles2178.50
DeSean Jackson2126.00
Chris Polk2126.01
Brad Smith122.00
Mike Vick2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek34581
Riley Cooper33531
DeSean Jackson45290
LeSean McCoy66290
Zach Ertz11270
Jason Avant33260
Chris Polk1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39