Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.100
- 45.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.9%Explosive rate13.5%
- +4.85CPOE+2.43
- 42.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.95Points / drive1.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/35 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 2/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/25 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Bryce Brown | 9 | 115 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39