Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.042
- 43.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.81CPOE-0.10
- 38.3%Third-down rate37.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.86Points / drive1.41
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/34 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/17 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 9/12 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.87