2016 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

29·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.042
  • 43.8%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.81CPOE-0.10
  • 38.3%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.41
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:371247Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 6:11872Missed field goal3–0
PHIQ1 2:01411Punt3–0
CHIQ2 15:00761Touchdown3–7
PHIQ2 11:1640Punt3–7
CHIQ2 9:1738Punt3–7
PHIQ2 7:381063Field goal6–7
CHIQ2 2:27313Punt6–7
PHIQ2 1:38638Field goal9–7
CHIQ2 0:0300End of half9–7
PHIQ3 15:004-5Punt9–7
CHIQ3 12:44424Turnover9–7
PHIQ3 10:4637Punt9–7
CHIQ3 9:36835Punt9–7
PHIQ3 5:24868Touchdown16–7
CHIQ3 0:5310Turnover22–7
PHIQ3 0:3612Touchdown22–7
CHIQ3 0:32521Turnover22–7
PHIQ4 13:41745Touchdown29–7
CHIQ4 10:361060Turnover on downs29–7
PHIQ4 6:473-2Opp touchdown29–14
PHIQ4 5:09612End of half29–14

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3419010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles12403.30
Ryan Mathews9323.62
Wendell Smallwood2168.00
Carson Wentz6101.70
Kenjon Barner221.00
Josh Huff100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews69710
Trey Burton57491
Nelson Agholor47420
Dorial Green-Beckham24180
Darren Sproles2280
Ryan Mathews1130
Brent Celek0100
Wendell Smallwood0100
Josh Huff11-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler12/1715701
Brian Hoyer9/127800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Langford11282.51
Jordan Howard3227.30
Kevin White199.00
Ka'Deem Carey231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery57960
Eddie Royal46520
Kevin White46360
Zach Miller45330
Jordan Howard2290
Jeremy Langford1260
Ka'Deem Carey1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.87