Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.004
- 41.1%Success rate44.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.105
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.71CPOE-1.01
- 36.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.50Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 10/21 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/39 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.70