2019 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

14·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.1%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.105
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.71CPOE-1.01
  • 36.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:181372Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 6:453-2Punt0–3
PHIQ1 5:381247Field goal0–6
CHIQ2 13:225-1Punt0–6
PHIQ2 10:19953Touchdown0–12
CHIQ2 6:2133Punt0–12
PHIQ2 4:394-2Punt0–12
CHIQ2 3:053-11Punt0–12
PHIQ2 2:0036Punt0–12
CHIQ2 1:03519Punt0–12
PHIQ2 0:27526End of half0–12
PHIQ3 15:00875Touchdown0–19
CHIQ3 10:37775Touchdown7–19
PHIQ3 6:29611Punt7–19
CHIQ3 3:5834Punt7–19
PHIQ3 2:3531Punt7–19
CHIQ3 1:04858Touchdown14–19
PHIQ4 12:43511Punt14–19
CHIQ4 10:14418Punt14–19
PHIQ4 8:391574Field goal14–22
CHIQ4 0:2500Turnover14–22
PHIQ4 0:2300Turnover14–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky10/2112500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14402.92
Mitchell Trubisky2157.50
Tarik Cohen273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel33690
David Montgomery34360
Tarik Cohen2590
Allen Robinson1560
Cordarrelle Patterson1150
Trey Burton0100
Adam Shaheen0100
Anthony Miller0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz26/3923910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard19824.31
Miles Sanders10424.20
Carson Wentz4153.80
Darren Sproles273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz9111031
Dallas Goedert45390
Alshon Jeffery48360
Miles Sanders33310
Nelson Agholor38210
DeSean Jackson1150
Darren Sproles1230
Jordan Howard1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.70