Closing spread
STL -11
Total
51
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. STL are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/30 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 8 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.