Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play-0.092
- 37.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.193EPA / dropback-0.052
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.160
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- 23.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 0.79Points / drive1.06
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 13/22 | 202 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/46 | 232 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 68 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.06
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.01