Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.060
- 41.7%Success rate45.1%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.177EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.46Points / drive1.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/35 | 300 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dixon | 4 | 5 | 107 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 7 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 9/20 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3/6 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 15 | 167 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 3 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedric James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69