2002 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

27·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NYG -1.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.060
  • 41.7%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.177EPA / rush+0.071
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.93
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
NYGQ1 15:00720Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:55729Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 7:45419Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 6:1032Punt7–0
NYGQ1 4:2644Turnover7–0
MINQ1 2:431051Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 12:36772Touchdown13–3
MINQ2 8:4834Punt13–3
NYGQ2 7:40850Missed field goal13–3
MINQ2 4:51518Punt13–3
NYGQ2 1:563-1Punt13–3
MINQ2 0:12217End of half13–3
MINQ3 15:00522Punt13–3
NYGQ3 13:0643Punt13–3
MINQ3 12:13648Field goal13–6
NYGQ3 9:11755Turnover on downs13–6
MINQ3 6:22510Punt13–6
NYGQ3 3:267101Touchdown19–6
MINQ3 0:2222Turnover19–6
NYGQ4 14:5246Punt19–6
MINQ4 13:17381Touchdown19–13
NYGQ4 12:0669Punt19–13
MINQ4 8:52278Touchdown19–20
NYGQ4 8:361285Touchdown27–20
MINQ4 2:435-6Punt27–20
NYGQ4 2:02737End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins25/3530021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber241275.31
Ron Dayne6406.71
Tim Carter166.00
Kerry Collins3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ron Dixon451070
Amani Toomer57831
Tiki Barber77460
Dan Campbell44350
Jeremy Shockey39190
Daryl Jones1190
Charles Stackhouse1111

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper9/209100
Todd Bouman3/68500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett1516711.11
Daunte Culpepper6427.00
Todd Bouman199.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser144.00
Moe Williams221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss38850
Chris Walsh11230
D'Wayne Bates13190
Jimmy Kleinsasser24190
Byron Chamberlain24110
Moe Williams12100
Michael Bennett2390
Cedric James0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69