Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.070
- 42.3%Success rate46.1%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- 46.4%Third-down rate46.8%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.98
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:44 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:11 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:52 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:54 | 6 | 49 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 11:15 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 6:52 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:30 | 2 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NO | Q2 5:43 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 2:07 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| NO | Q2 0:17 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 3–21 |
| NO | Q3 13:11 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 9:58 | 6 | 10 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 6:41 | 12 | 49 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q3 2:16 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 1:07 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NO | Q4 13:51 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| SEA | Q4 8:47 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–24 |
| NO | Q4 5:00 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| SEA | Q4 3:10 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| NO | Q4 1:01 | 5 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| SEA | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 29/47 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/23 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 108 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22