2003 · Week 1

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

10·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.070
  • 42.3%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.148
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • 46.4%Third-down rate46.8%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.98
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.012

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks29/4727411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister22994.50
Aaron Brooks221.00
Michael L. Lewis122.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck12/2313720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander241084.51
Matt Hasselbeck4112.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.22