Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.059
- 47.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.101
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +5.36CPOE+5.19
- 45.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/38 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/30 | 310 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 5 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.13