2013 · Week 13

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

7·34

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.059
  • 47.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.101
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +5.36CPOE+5.19
  • 45.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SEA
NOQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:311061Field goal0–3
NOQ1 7:4732Opp touchdown0–10
NOQ1 6:2734Punt0–10
SEAQ1 4:53673Touchdown0–17
NOQ1 1:551474Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 8:451097Field goal7–20
NOQ2 3:4138Punt7–20
SEAQ2 2:051284Touchdown7–27
NOQ2 0:1300End of half7–27
SEAQ3 15:0030Punt7–27
NOQ3 12:54510Punt7–27
SEAQ3 10:54969Touchdown7–34
NOQ3 7:0764Punt7–34
SEAQ3 4:31418Punt7–34
NOQ3 2:321143Turnover on downs7–34
SEAQ4 13:473-8Punt7–34
NOQ4 11:45835Turnover on downs7–34
SEAQ4 9:371336Turnover on downs7–34
NOQ4 1:4936Punt7–34
SEAQ4 0:1800End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3814710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram8222.80
Darren Sproles3113.70
Pierre Thomas400.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham39421
Darren Sproles78320
Marques Colston47270
Pierre Thomas44210
Lance Moore22120
Robert Meachem1370
Kenny Stills1230
Benjamin Watson0100
Josh Hill0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3031030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson8475.90
Marshawn Lynch16452.80
Robert Turbin11343.10
Ricardo Lockette1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller58861
Doug Baldwin45771
Golden Tate45450
Ricardo Lockette11330
Jermaine Kearse23260
Marshawn Lynch34120
Luke Willson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.13