Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
50
Model margin
+0.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.100
- 44.0%Success rate48.2%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.81CPOE+4.38
- 38.7%Third-down rate49.0%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.39
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/34 | 253 | 0 | 1 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1/1 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/35 | 265 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Daniel Lasco | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01