2016 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·25

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

50

Model margin

+0.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSaints
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.100
  • 44.0%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.012
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.81CPOE+4.38
  • 38.7%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.39
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NO
NOQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:08629Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:44214Opp touchdown7–0
NOQ1 7:5331Punt7–0
SEAQ1 6:05312Punt7–0
NOQ1 3:331483Field goal7–3
SEAQ2 11:33475Touchdown14–3
NOQ2 9:53940Field goal14–6
SEAQ2 5:1510Turnover14–6
NOQ2 5:021027Touchdown14–13
SEAQ2 0:49645End of half14–13
SEAQ3 15:001049Field goal17–13
NOQ3 8:561174Field goal17–16
SEAQ3 3:14414Punt17–16
NOQ3 1:51971Touchdown17–22
SEAQ4 12:241277Field goal20–22
NOQ4 6:381151Field goal20–25
SEAQ4 1:57758Turnover on downs20–25

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3425301
Tanner McEvoy1/14300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael10404.01
C.J. Prosise4235.80
Russell Wilson3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Prosise44800
Jermaine Kearse47570
Doug Baldwin46510
Jimmy Graham35340
Paul Richardson23330
Tyler Lockett44320
Nick Vannett1170
Christine Michael1220

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3526510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower261023.90
Daniel Lasco5153.00
Mark Ingram351.70
Drew Brees111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas66630
Willie Snead68560
Brandon Coleman22440
Brandin Cooks46441
Coby Fleener44360
Travaris Cadet1270
Josh Hill1130
Tim Hightower1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01