2013 · DIV

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

15·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

44

Model margin

+4.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.059
  • 47.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.101
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +5.36CPOE+5.19
  • 45.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SEA
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:3966Field goal0–3
NOQ1 10:19853Missed field goal0–3
SEAQ1 5:03834Field goal0–6
NOQ1 0:3724Turnover0–6
SEAQ2 14:51224Touchdown0–13
NOQ2 14:17413Punt0–13
SEAQ2 13:06731Punt0–13
NOQ2 8:54523Turnover on downs0–13
SEAQ2 6:021368Field goal0–16
NOQ2 1:18516End of half0–16
SEAQ3 15:0036Punt0–16
NOQ3 13:26526Punt0–16
SEAQ3 9:59615Punt0–16
NOQ3 6:2262Turnover on downs0–16
SEAQ3 4:1334Punt0–16
NOQ3 2:38974Touchdown8–16
SEAQ4 13:11519Punt8–16
NOQ4 10:32836Punt8–16
SEAQ4 7:0938Punt8–16
NOQ4 5:31652Missed field goal8–16
SEAQ4 3:51462Touchdown8–23
NOQ4 2:401185Touchdown15–23
SEAQ4 0:2600End of half15–23
NOQ4 0:2418End of half15–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/4330910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson13574.41
Mark Ingram10494.90
Darren Sproles320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston11161441
Robert Meachem22690
Darren Sproles56320
Josh Hill12230
Lance Moore25200
Khiry Robinson11130
Jimmy Graham1680
Benjamin Watson1100
Mark Ingram0200
Travaris Cadet0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson9/1810300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch281405.02
Russell Wilson3165.30
Percy Harvin199.00
Robert Turbin393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin23300
Jermaine Kearse11250
Percy Harvin34210
Golden Tate15130
Zach Miller11110
Marshawn Lynch1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.29