Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
44
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.059
- 47.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.101
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +5.36CPOE+5.19
- 45.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/43 | 309 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 11 | 16 | 144 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 69 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 9/18 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 28 | 140 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.29