2025 · Week 3

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

13·44

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.036
  • 42.4%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.076
  • 5.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.72CPOE+4.54
  • 39.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.22
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SEA
NOQ1 15:00624Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 12:20643Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 9:4839Opp touchdown0–14
NOQ1 7:31418Punt0–14
SEAQ1 4:50211Touchdown0–21
NOQ1 4:221660Field goal3–21
SEAQ2 12:47338Touchdown3–28
NOQ2 11:1834Punt3–28
SEAQ2 9:34461Touchdown3–35
NOQ2 7:421047Missed field goal3–35
SEAQ2 2:49724Field goal3–38
NOQ2 1:29744Field goal6–38
SEAQ3 15:00737Field goal6–41
NOQ3 11:293-2Punt6–41
SEAQ3 9:511046Field goal6–44
NOQ3 4:391165Touchdown13–44
SEAQ4 14:5337Punt13–44
NOQ4 12:4546Turnover13–44
SEAQ4 11:05417Punt13–44
NOQ4 8:5233Punt13–44
SEAQ4 7:54721Turnover13–44
NOQ4 3:3136Punt13–44
SEAQ4 2:37316End of half13–44

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler28/3921811
Tyler Shough0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara18422.30
Kendre Miller7273.90
Spencer Rattler2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave1014570
Juwan Johnson68510
Rashid Shaheed46420
Brandin Cooks35240
Jack Stoll23211
Alvin Kamara12140
Kendre Miller2290
Kevin Austin Jr.0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/1821820
Drew Lock2/31500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III16382.42
George Holani10272.70
Jacardia Wright5204.00
Jalen Milroe133.00
Drew Lock1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba56961
Tory Horton34321
Cooper Kupp23310
AJ Barner11230
George Holani22150
Eric Saubert11120
Dareke Young11120
Kenneth Walker III11120
Elijah Arroyo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.94