Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.036
- 42.4%Success rate46.6%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.076
- 5.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.72CPOE+4.54
- 39.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.53Points / drive2.22
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 28/39 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 10 | 14 | 57 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/18 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 2 |
| George Holani | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jacardia Wright | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Milroe | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Tory Horton | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| George Holani | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94