2010 · WC

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

36·41

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.117
  • 46.2%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.194
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +5.83CPOE-1.80
  • 48.8%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.36
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SEA
NOQ1 15:00752Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 11:4339Turnover3–0
NOQ1 10:321025Touchdown10–0
SEAQ1 6:21752Touchdown10–7
NOQ1 3:381183Touchdown17–7
SEAQ2 13:38667Touchdown17–14
NOQ2 11:0033Punt17–14
SEAQ2 9:5536Punt17–14
NOQ2 9:011-1Turnover17–14
SEAQ2 8:5038Field goal17–17
NOQ2 7:033-2Punt17–17
SEAQ2 5:03976Touchdown17–24
NOQ2 1:15877Field goal20–24
SEAQ3 15:00779Touchdown20–31
NOQ3 11:48515Punt20–31
SEAQ3 9:39833Field goal20–34
NOQ3 5:2749Turnover on downs20–34
SEAQ3 3:5132Punt20–34
NOQ3 2:531272Touchdown27–34
SEAQ4 13:1130Punt27–34
NOQ4 12:40753Field goal30–34
SEAQ4 9:13610Punt30–34
NOQ4 5:36418Punt30–34
SEAQ4 4:20267Touchdown30–41
NOQ4 3:22970Touchdown36–41
SEAQ4 1:3027End of half36–41

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees39/6040420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones15593.92
Reggie Bush5122.40
Drew Brees263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devery Henderson78771
Marques Colston48660
Julius Jones69610
Lance Moore49490
David Thomas45380
Reggie Bush56370
Robert Meachem33290
Jeremy Shockey24240

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3527241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch191316.91
Justin Forsett4205.00
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley44731
Mike Williams58681
Ben Obomanu511430
Cameron Morrah12390
John Carlson33172
Ruvell Martin11150
Justin Forsett24120
Golden Tate1150
Marshawn Lynch0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83