Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.117
- 46.2%Success rate38.3%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.194
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.83CPOE-1.80
- 48.8%Third-down rate37.0%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/60 | 404 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 7 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/35 | 272 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 131 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 5 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 |
| Ruvell Martin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83