Closing spread
NO -6
Total
42
Model margin
-0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.042
- 41.1%Success rate43.8%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.147EPA / rush+0.026
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.00CPOE+4.08
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.88Points / drive2.12
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/35 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 11 | 128 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 12/22 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.89
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.24