Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.037
- 44.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.46CPOE+1.61
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/25 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 88 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 104 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/24 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 22 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 112 | 12.4 | 3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 23 | 103 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93