2022 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

32·39

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSaints
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.037
  • 44.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.109
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.46CPOE+1.61
  • 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA
2010 · W11SEA @ NO19–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NO
NOQ1 15:00941Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:34575Touchdown7–3
NOQ1 6:41419Punt7–3
SEAQ1 4:10636Field goal10–3
NOQ1 1:131064Touchdown10–10
SEAQ2 10:543-1Punt10–10
NOQ2 8:4336Punt10–10
SEAQ2 6:434-2Turnover on downs10–10
NOQ2 4:19213Touchdown10–17
SEAQ2 3:34862Field goal13–17
NOQ2 1:42742Turnover13–17
SEAQ2 0:20350Touchdown19–17
NOQ2 0:0700End of half19–17
SEAQ3 15:0018Turnover19–17
NOQ3 14:50631Touchdown19–24
SEAQ3 12:03515Punt19–24
NOQ3 10:10517Punt19–24
SEAQ3 7:1937Punt19–24
NOQ3 5:5421Turnover19–24
SEAQ3 4:58521Punt19–24
NOQ3 2:46479Touchdown19–31
SEAQ3 0:36453Touchdown25–31
NOQ4 14:081130Punt25–31
SEAQ4 7:40278Touchdown32–31
NOQ4 6:54369Touchdown32–39
SEAQ4 5:223-6Punt32–39
NOQ4 3:21530End of half32–39

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2526830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III88811.01
Rashaad Penny8546.80
Geno Smith3134.30
DeeJay Dallas144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett561042
DK Metcalf58881
Noah Fant35490
Will Dissly23210
DeeJay Dallas1160
Dee Eskridge0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2418711
Taysom Hill1/12210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill911212.43
Alvin Kamara231034.50
Mark Ingram9161.80
Andy Dalton740.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara66910
Chris Olave46541
Adam Trautman23321
Juwan Johnson12130
Tre'Quan Smith14100
Marquez Callaway2350
Keith Kirkwood1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.93