Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.018
- 47.0%Success rate45.5%
- +0.172EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.92CPOE+7.05
- 43.9%Third-down rate39.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.45Points / drive1.86
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/27 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 32/50 | 406 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 2 |
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 11 | 14 | 154 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| C.J. Prosise | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94