Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:05 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 6:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TEN | Q1 5:10 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 4:22 | 4 | 24 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q1 1:29 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 14:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q2 12:38 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| LV | Q2 8:32 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–9 |
| TEN | Q2 5:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–9 |
| LV | Q2 3:55 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–9 |
| TEN | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 41 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 10–12 |
| TEN | Q3 14:03 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 10–12 |
| LV | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–12 |
| TEN | Q3 8:01 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 10–15 |
| LV | Q3 2:52 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 13–15 |
| TEN | Q4 13:51 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–15 |
| LV | Q4 12:44 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 13–15 |
| TEN | Q4 11:57 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–22 |
| LV | Q4 7:51 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–22 |
| TEN | Q4 6:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–22 |
| LV | Q4 4:57 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 20–22 |
| TEN | Q4 3:30 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 20–25 |
| LV | Q4 0:32 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 20–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/38 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 20 | 42 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.42
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.