Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:37 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 8:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:16 | 8 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 5:25 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:21 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 12:55 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 10:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 7:42 | 5 | 39 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q2 4:25 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–24 |
| KC | Q2 2:09 | 5 | 40 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–24 |
| KC | Q3 12:39 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 10:32 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| KC | Q3 8:16 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q3 2:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–27 |
| KC | Q4 14:32 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q4 12:11 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–27 |
| KC | Q4 10:45 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q4 9:47 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| KC | Q4 8:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q4 7:03 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| KC | Q4 4:32 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LAC | Q4 2:20 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| LAC | Q4 2:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| KC | Q4 1:56 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–27 |
| KC | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/32 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.