Closing spread
STL -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:47 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:34 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:44 | 1 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:30 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 5:02 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:30 | 3 | -6 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:10 | 12 | 66 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:26 | 4 | 83 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:57 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 6:40 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:10 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q2 3:18 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:43 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 6–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q3 13:17 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LA | Q3 8:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NYG | Q3 8:14 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| LA | Q3 5:03 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| NYG | Q3 4:06 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| LA | Q3 2:43 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| NYG | Q4 14:03 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LA | Q4 10:17 | 9 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| NYG | Q4 5:20 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LA | Q4 4:51 | 6 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| NYG | Q4 2:18 | 3 | 23 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/26 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 146 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.