Closing spread
MIN -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.079
- 38.3%Success rate45.9%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.044
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 33.9%Third-down rate46.9%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.44Points / drive1.96
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 13:57 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 10:35 | 8 | 51 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:06 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 3:10 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q1 0:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 14:41 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 11:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 9:07 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q2 1:55 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:39 | 4 | 34 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| CHI | Q2 0:01 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–17 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 13:03 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CHI | Q3 9:36 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| MIN | Q3 4:43 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CHI | Q3 0:14 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIN | Q4 12:38 | 16 | 93 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| CHI | Q4 2:56 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| MIN | Q4 1:49 | 3 | -1 | End of half | 13–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/21 | 137 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1/2 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/26 | 214 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Onterrio Smith | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.99