Closing spread
OAK -12
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:32 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 12:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:21 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q1 9:27 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q1 5:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q1 4:06 | 16 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:46 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q2 6:57 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q2 2:30 | 5 | -6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:49 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q3 13:50 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:46 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 8:18 | 16 | 81 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q3 0:30 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CIN | Q4 13:24 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 9:24 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CIN | Q4 7:44 | 10 | 56 | Opp touchdown | 13–20 |
| CIN | Q4 3:46 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 1:18 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| CIN | Q4 0:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/41 | 303 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.