2024 · Week 9

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

24·41

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -8

Total

45

Model margin

+4.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBengals
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.107
  • 41.0%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.46CPOE+6.81
  • 34.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.50
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · playoffsLV @ CIN19–26CIN
2021 · W11CIN @ LV32–13CIN
2019 · W11CIN @ OAK10–17RAIDERS
2018 · W15OAK @ CIN16–30CIN
2015 · W1CIN @ OAK33–13CIN
2012 · W12OAK @ CIN10–34CIN
2009 · W11CIN @ OAK17–20RAIDERS
2006 · W14OAK @ CIN10–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CIN
LVQ1 15:001254Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 9:361370Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 1:39618Punt7–7
CINQ2 13:291364Field goal7–10
LVQ2 7:00642Field goal10–10
CINQ2 2:58661Touchdown10–17
LVQ2 0:32423Punt10–17
CINQ2 0:0500End of half10–17
CINQ3 15:00853Touchdown10–24
LVQ3 11:27425Turnover10–24
CINQ3 9:42521Touchdown10–31
LVQ3 7:3432Punt10–31
CINQ3 6:3635Punt10–31
LVQ3 5:0231Punt10–31
CINQ3 4:1566Punt10–31
LVQ3 1:033-5Punt10–31
CINQ4 14:06215Opp touchdown17–31
CINQ4 13:1737Punt17–31
LVQ4 11:321231Turnover on downs17–31
CINQ4 6:36659Touchdown17–38
LVQ4 5:371-17Turnover17–38
CINQ4 5:29614Field goal17–41
LVQ4 1:53743Touchdown24–41
CINQ4 0:4100End of half24–41

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew10/1712400
Desmond Ridder11/167410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison9364.00
Ameer Abdullah4123.00
Zamir White6101.71
Desmond Ridder122.00
Gardner Minshew100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers8111050
Brock Bowers58451
Harrison Bryant22220
Ameer Abdullah33140
Ramel Keyton1270
Tre Tucker2650

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow27/3925151

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown271204.40
Joe Burrow3113.70
Jake Browning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki561002
Ja'Marr Chase711430
Chase Brown55371
Erick All22240
Tanner Hudson23140
Drew Sample44141
Andrei Iosivas14101
Kendric Pryor1190
Trenton Irwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.73