Closing spread
CIN -8
Total
45
Model margin
+4.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.107
- 41.0%Success rate48.0%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.46CPOE+6.81
- 34.2%Third-down rate47.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.51Points / drive2.50
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 10/17 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 11/16 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ramel Keyton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/39 | 251 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 100 | 2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Erick All | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 4 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Kendric Pryor | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73