Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.063
- 45.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.094
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.92CPOE+5.14
- 36.8%Third-down rate40.1%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.87Points / drive2.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 29/54 | 310 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/34 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 12 | 116 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 6 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.11