2021 · WC

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

19·26

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 31°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBengals
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.063
  • 45.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.094
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.92CPOE+5.14
  • 36.8%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LV @ CIN24–41CIN
2021 · W11CIN @ LV32–13CIN
2019 · W11CIN @ OAK10–17RAIDERS
2018 · W15OAK @ CIN16–30CIN
2015 · W1CIN @ OAK33–13CIN
2012 · W12OAK @ CIN10–34CIN
2009 · W11CIN @ OAK17–20RAIDERS
2006 · W14OAK @ CIN10–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CIN
LVQ1 15:00951Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:231075Touchdown3–7
LVQ1 4:3146Turnover3–7
CINQ1 3:0137Field goal3–10
LVQ1 1:1531Punt3–10
CINQ2 14:12733Field goal3–13
LVQ2 10:20551Field goal6–13
CINQ2 7:551282Touchdown6–20
LVQ2 1:511175Touchdown13–20
CINQ2 0:1300End of half13–20
CINQ3 15:00945Field goal13–23
LVQ3 10:56517Punt13–23
CINQ3 8:214-3Punt13–23
LVQ3 6:471676Field goal16–23
CINQ4 14:171265Field goal16–26
LVQ4 6:461367Field goal19–26
CINQ4 3:3436Punt19–26
LVQ4 1:511041Turnover19–26
CINQ4 0:1200End of half19–26

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr29/5431011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13836.40
Derek Carr12020.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller712760
Zay Jones58611
Hunter Renfrow811580
Josh Jacobs45440
Bryan Edwards36410
DeSean Jackson12260
Jalen Richard1240
Foster Moreau0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3424420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17482.80
Ja'Marr Chase3237.70
Chris Evans199.00
Tyler Boyd133.00
Samaje Perine122.00
Joe Burrow2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase9121160
C.J. Uzomah66641
Joe Mixon45280
Tyler Boyd45261
Tee Higgins14100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.11