Closing spread
OAK -13
Total
48
Model margin
+7.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 13/31 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Finley | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.05
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.