Closing spread
OAK -13
Total
48
Model margin
+7.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bengals
- OutA.J. GreenWRAnkle· DNP
- OutAlex RedmondGKnee· DNP
- OutDre KirkpatrickCBKnee· DNP
- OutDrew SampleTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBobby HartTShoulder· Full
- QuestionableGeno AtkinsDTAnkle· Limited
Raiders
- OutDavid SharpeTCalf· DNP
- OutLamarcus JoynerSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTKnee· DNP
- LimitedJosh JacobsRBShoulder
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:10 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:49 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:30 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:03 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 14:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:57 | 11 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 6:50 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:16 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:37 | 5 | 40 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:35 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 9:23 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 7:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q3 5:19 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:20 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q3 0:19 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:32 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q4 9:12 | 10 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| LV | Q4 5:06 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q4 1:54 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| LV | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 13/31 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Finley | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.05
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.