Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/34 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 9 | 12 | 104 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.