2021 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

32·13

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.001
  • 44.6%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.161
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +5.14CPOE+1.92
  • 40.1%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. LV are 1-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LV @ CIN24–41CIN
2021 · playoffsLV @ CIN19–26CIN
2019 · W11CIN @ OAK10–17RAIDERS
2018 · W15OAK @ CIN16–30CIN
2015 · W1CIN @ OAK33–13CIN
2012 · W12OAK @ CIN10–34CIN
2009 · W11CIN @ OAK17–20RAIDERS
2006 · W14OAK @ CIN10–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–LV
CINQ1 15:00614Turnover0–0
LVQ1 12:0031Field goal0–3
CINQ1 10:37724Field goal3–3
LVQ1 7:36641Punt3–3
CINQ1 3:55619Punt3–3
LVQ2 14:50732Field goal3–6
CINQ2 11:061356Touchdown10–6
LVQ2 4:15428Punt10–6
CINQ2 2:0469Punt10–6
LVQ2 0:2825End of half10–6
LVQ3 15:00520Punt10–6
CINQ3 11:38934Field goal13–6
LVQ3 6:04416Punt13–6
CINQ3 3:40946Field goal16–6
LVQ4 13:17375Touchdown16–13
CINQ4 11:421357Touchdown22–13
LVQ4 5:0327Turnover22–13
CINQ4 4:43227Touchdown29–13
LVQ4 3:51944Turnover29–13
CINQ4 1:2332Field goal32–13
LVQ4 1:0429End of half32–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow20/2914810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon301234.12
Tyler Boyd11414.00
Joe Burrow3113.70
Ja'Marr Chase284.00
Samaje Perine231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd68490
Ja'Marr Chase36321
Samaje Perine33180
Tee Higgins23150
Mike Thomas11120
C.J. Uzomah2390
Chris Evans1170
Stanley Morgan1130
Drew Sample1230

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr19/2721511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs9374.10
Kenyan Drake5234.60
Hunter Renfrow155.00
DeSean Jackson144.00
Peyton Barber133.00
Bryan Edwards100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller781160
Hunter Renfrow44300
Josh Jacobs57240
Zay Jones12200
Foster Moreau12191
Kenyan Drake1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.26