Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.001
- 44.6%Success rate45.2%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +5.14CPOE+1.92
- 40.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.38Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. LV are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/29 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 30 | 123 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/27 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.26