Closing spread
CIN -9
Total
36
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bengals
- DoubtfulCedric BensonRBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulEvan MathisGAnkle· Limited
- DoubtfulKeith RiversLBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableChris CrockerSCalf· Limited
- QuestionableJohnathan JosephCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMorgan TrentCBKnee· DNP
- ProbableJeremi JohnsonRBChest· Full
- ProbableLaveranues ColesWRHead· Full
Raiders
- OutJavon WalkerWRHamstring· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· DNP
- OutRicky BrownLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableGreg EllisDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableIsaiah EkejiubaLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableHiram EugeneSShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:35 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:15 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:32 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 2:32 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:00 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 12:17 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 5:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:57 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 0:59 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:26 | 3 | 25 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q3 9:59 | 10 | 58 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:05 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q3 4:42 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q3 1:41 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 11:31 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q4 7:43 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q4 6:00 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:12 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| CIN | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 0:27 | 1 | 2 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| CIN | Q4 0:15 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/22 | 207 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scott | 21 | 119 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
0.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.