Closing spread
CIN -9
Total
36
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. OAK are 1-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/22 | 207 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scott | 21 | 119 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
0.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.