Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
46
Model margin
-2.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGElbow· DNP
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGToe· DNP
- QuestionableKyle WilberLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· Limited
- LimitedDaryl WorleyCBShoulder
- LimitedDwayne HarrisWRFoot
- LimitedLee SmithTEBack
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Bengals
- OutVontaze BurfictLBConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulKeiVarae RussellCBFinger· DNP
- QuestionableCordy GlennTBack· Limited
- QuestionableDre KirkpatrickCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMichael JohnsonDEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableTony McRaeCBConcussion· Limited
- LimitedBobby HartTKnee
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:00 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:42 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 7:42 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:00 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 0:10 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 10:17 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 9:29 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 6:41 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 3:48 | 7 | 11 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LV | Q2 1:39 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LV | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 9 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 12:13 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q3 6:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 5:22 | 5 | 56 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| CIN | Q3 2:38 | 14 | 81 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| LV | Q4 10:45 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 13–23 |
| CIN | Q4 9:11 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LV | Q4 7:05 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 16–23 |
| CIN | Q4 5:05 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 16–30 |
| LV | Q4 4:04 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 16–30 |
| CIN | Q4 2:21 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 16–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 14/33 | 130 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.