Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
46
Model margin
-2.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 14/33 | 130 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.