Closing spread
CIN -9.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/30 | 210 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 19 | 129 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 9 | 29 | 2 |
| Orson Charles | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.