Closing spread
CIN -9.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· DNP
- OutMike GoodsonRBAnkle· DNP
- OutRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJack CrawfordDEToe· DNP
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBAnkle· Limited
- LimitedDenarius MooreWRHamstring
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTyvon BranchSNeck· Full
Bengals
- DoubtfulAndrew HawkinsWRKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRichard QuinnTEHamstring· DNP
- ProbableAdam JonesCBCalf· Full
- ProbableJeff FaineCHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarvin JonesWRKnee· Full
- ProbableReggie NelsonSHamstring· Full
- ProbableTerence NewmanCBHead· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:31 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 7:27 | 10 | 98 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 2:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q1 2:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:45 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 13:27 | 13 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 7:28 | 10 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 0–21 |
| CIN | Q2 1:48 | 4 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| CIN | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 11 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 14:00 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| CIN | Q3 10:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LV | Q3 9:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–24 |
| CIN | Q3 7:04 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LV | Q3 5:29 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q3 2:21 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 0:26 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q4 14:52 | 5 | 44 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| LV | Q4 12:29 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 10–27 |
| CIN | Q4 8:50 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:39 | 7 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| CIN | Q4 1:48 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/30 | 210 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 19 | 129 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 9 | 29 | 2 |
| Orson Charles | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.