2003 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

35·32

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -7.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.085EPA / play-0.123
  • 39.6%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.188
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 50.3%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.23Points / drive0.93
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.125EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:363-5Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:3735Punt0–6
DALQ1 7:3010Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ1 7:21758Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 3:06414Turnover7–7
DALQ1 1:29611Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 14:12613Punt10–7
DALQ2 11:07640Field goal13–7
NYGQ2 7:41414Punt13–7
DALQ2 6:0340Punt13–7
NYGQ2 3:5731Opp touchdown20–7
NYGQ2 3:05740Turnover20–7
DALQ2 1:51955Missed field goal20–7
NYGQ2 0:0400End of half20–7
DALQ3 15:00736Field goal23–7
NYGQ3 11:00831Touchdown23–14
DALQ3 8:11635Field goal26–14
NYGQ3 4:53413Punt26–14
DALQ3 3:371244Field goal29–14
NYGQ4 12:43840Touchdown29–21
DALQ4 9:54419Punt29–21
NYGQ4 7:32564Touchdown29–29
DALQ4 6:2036Punt29–29
NYGQ4 4:34616Punt29–29
DALQ4 3:2036Punt29–29
NYGQ4 2:59840Field goal29–32
DALQ4 0:11126Field goal32–32
DALOT826Punt32–32
NYGOT30Punt32–32
DALOT846Field goal35–32

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter25/4032101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick23602.60
Quincy Carter4174.31
Aveion Cason3113.70

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins21/5126532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber15412.70
Ike Hilliard11313.00
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.10