Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.123
- 39.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.188
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.8%Third-down rate32.9%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.23Points / drive0.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 25/40 | 321 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 23 | 60 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/51 | 265 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.10