Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.013
- 39.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.0%Third-down rate40.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.47
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:39 | 11 | 78 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 5:50 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 13:33 | 10 | 94 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:45 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–3 |
| MIA | Q2 5:42 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 21–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 13:09 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 21–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:32 | 10 | 74 | Turnover on downs | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 6:09 | 11 | 45 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:48 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q4 12:42 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:28 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q4 7:23 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:19 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q4 2:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:53 | 8 | 87 | End of half | 21–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/19 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 34 | 125 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 29/45 | 373 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.19
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.31