Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.124
- 41.6%Success rate47.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.170EPA / rush+0.069
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.33Points / drive2.38
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 28/47 | 336 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/21 | 125 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 26 | 122 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91