Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.154
- 46.1%Success rate39.4%
- +0.148EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.236
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 46.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.98Points / drive0.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 14:48 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:42 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:40 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:15 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:11 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:42 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:08 | 14 | 61 | Punt | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:30 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 14–0 |
| SEA | Q2 10:32 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| ARI | Q2 6:01 | 9 | 5 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| SEA | Q2 2:23 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| ARI | Q2 1:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–0 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| ARI | Q3 13:59 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 31–0 |
| SEA | Q3 12:14 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 31–0 |
| ARI | Q3 10:08 | 8 | 53 | Turnover | 31–0 |
| SEA | Q3 5:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 31–0 |
| ARI | Q3 4:33 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 31–0 |
| SEA | Q3 2:57 | 14 | 81 | Touchdown | 38–0 |
| ARI | Q4 10:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 38–0 |
| SEA | Q4 8:45 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 38–0 |
| ARI | Q4 2:34 | 11 | 64 | Turnover | 38–0 |
| SEA | Q4 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 38–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 8/19 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 18/32 | 150 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeff Blake | 7/14 | 55 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88