Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.067
- 44.4%Success rate47.3%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.023
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.61CPOE+2.11
- 37.5%Third-down rate43.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.82Points / drive2.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/30 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 22 | 134 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Holani | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/38 | 259 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 7 | 14 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47