2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

30·18

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.067
  • 44.4%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.023
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +4.61CPOE+2.11
  • 37.5%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.31
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00765Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 11:531266Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 4:4131Turnover9–7
SEAQ1 3:31119Touchdown10–7
ARIQ1 3:2521Turnover10–7
SEAQ1 2:44546Touchdown17–7
ARIQ1 0:16961Field goal17–10
SEAQ2 10:53426Punt17–10
ARIQ2 8:42413Punt17–10
SEAQ2 5:51695Touchdown24–10
ARIQ2 2:36516Punt24–10
SEAQ2 1:32520Punt24–10
ARIQ2 0:0400End of half24–10
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt24–10
ARIQ3 12:5749Punt24–10
SEAQ3 10:59949Field goal27–10
ARIQ3 5:291270Touchdown27–18
SEAQ3 1:0539Punt27–18
ARIQ4 14:0448Punt27–18
SEAQ4 12:10417Punt27–18
ARIQ4 10:42966Missed field goal27–18
SEAQ4 7:161153Field goal30–18
ARIQ4 1:561047End of half30–18

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith24/3023310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet221346.12
Kenny McIntosh7385.40
Jaxon Smith-Njigba144.00
Geno Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba55821
Zach Charbonnet77590
DK Metcalf46490
Noah Fant34180
AJ Barner11130
Kenny McIntosh2270
Pharaoh Brown1260
Tyler Lockett0100
George Holani11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray25/3825922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner18905.00
Kyler Murray3165.30
Trey Benson2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride714700
Michael Wilson23571
Marvin Harrison Jr.48490
James Conner44321
Emari Demercado44150
Tip Reiman11140
Zay Jones12130
Greg Dortch1150
Trey Benson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47