Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.139
- 38.8%Success rate48.6%
- +0.196EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.2%Explosive rate5.6%
- +2.36CPOE+4.61
- 18.2%Third-down rate46.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 1.29Points / drive2.35
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
6.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+6.13