2026 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

31·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-4.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.007
  • 42.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.072
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.2%
  • +1.94CPOE+0.66
  • 38.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 58.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.94
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:19286Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 12:25713Punt7–0
SEAQ1 7:433-2Punt7–0
ARIQ1 6:161353Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 14:57327Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 13:3036Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:10841Punt7–7
ARIQ2 7:0838Punt7–7
SEAQ2 5:24829Turnover on downs7–7
ARIQ2 1:12719Punt7–7
SEAQ2 0:2569Turnover on downs7–7
SEAQ3 15:00432Touchdown14–7
ARIQ3 12:2733Turnover14–7
SEAQ3 11:33829Field goal17–7
ARIQ3 6:47616Punt17–7
SEAQ3 3:131164Touchdown24–7
ARIQ4 12:4031Punt24–7
SEAQ4 11:251766Touchdown31–7
ARIQ4 1:11224End of half31–7

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock19/2623530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson21924.40
Jadarian Price13524.00
George Holani4133.30
Rashid Shaheed144.00
AJ Barner111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba9111553
Rashid Shaheed36350
Cooper Kupp22200
Elijah Arroyo11170
AJ Barner1180
Jadarian Price1280
George Holani1120
Emanuel Wilson0100
Eric Saubert11-100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/289511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremiyah Love9293.20
Bam Knight22412.00
Tyler Allgeier5102.00
Jacoby Brissett177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride810411
Michael Wilson27180
Jeremiyah Love33160
Kendrick Bourne23110
Tyler Allgeier2290
Marvin Harrison Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.50
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin-4.16