Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.014
- 46.6%Success rate43.0%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.54CPOE+1.10
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.6%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.22Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/26 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tory Horton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/41 | 200 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.15