2025 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

23·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.014
  • 46.6%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.54CPOE+1.10
  • 40.9%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:17638Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 9:0220Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 8:46528Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 4:37777Touchdown7–3
ARIQ1 1:333-1Punt7–3
SEAQ2 14:5053Punt7–3
ARIQ2 11:571040Turnover7–3
SEAQ2 8:20520Punt7–3
ARIQ2 5:4039Punt7–3
SEAQ2 3:45874Touchdown14–3
ARIQ2 1:01613End of half14–3
SEAQ3 15:00940Field goal17–3
ARIQ3 8:5668Punt17–3
SEAQ3 6:2630Punt17–3
ARIQ3 4:50623Field goal17–6
SEAQ3 1:391463Field goal20–6
ARIQ4 9:33958Touchdown20–13
SEAQ4 5:50643Missed field goal20–13
ARIQ4 3:161257Touchdown20–20
SEAQ4 0:28326Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/2624210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III19814.30
Zach Charbonnet12393.31
Sam Darnold12424.00
Jaxon Smith-Njigba3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba45790
Elijah Arroyo24440
AJ Barner33321
Kenneth Walker III12290
Cooper Kupp45260
Jake Bobo11170
Tory Horton12100
Zach Charbonnet2250

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/4120022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray5418.20
Trey Benson8354.40
Emari Demercado284.00
Greg Dortch144.00
Michael Carter111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.610661
Trey McBride711520
Greg Dortch45350
Trey Benson55190
Michael Wilson36150
Emari Demercado22131
Xavier Weaver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.15