2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

6·16

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.013
  • 47.3%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.11CPOE+4.61
  • 43.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.82
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:0041Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:09625Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:32626Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:09417Punt0–0
ARIQ1 2:06733Punt0–0
SEAQ2 14:0542Punt0–0
ARIQ2 12:38643Field goal3–0
SEAQ2 9:43728Punt3–0
ARIQ2 5:4231Punt3–0
SEAQ2 4:39761Touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 1:1436Punt3–7
SEAQ2 0:39413End of half3–7
SEAQ3 15:0069Punt3–7
ARIQ3 11:29852Opp touchdown3–13
ARIQ3 7:124-1Punt3–13
SEAQ3 4:581173Turnover3–13
ARIQ4 14:511076Field goal6–13
SEAQ4 10:081359Field goal6–16
ARIQ4 1:56761Missed field goal6–16
SEAQ4 0:1100End of half6–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3728501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Benson4184.50
Emari Demercado11414.00
Kyler Murray294.50
James Conner781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride12151330
Michael Wilson24540
Marvin Harrison Jr.36470
James Conner55410
Greg Dortch1250
Elijah Higgins1250

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith22/3125411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III16412.60
Zach Charbonnet6223.70
Geno Smith320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba67771
DK Metcalf45590
Kenneth Walker III46520
Tyler Lockett23200
Pharaoh Brown22190
AJ Barner34190
Jake Bobo1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.38