Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.013
- 47.3%Success rate44.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.11CPOE+4.61
- 43.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.31Points / drive1.82
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/37 | 285 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 12 | 15 | 133 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 22/31 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.38