2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

21·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.6%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.54CPOE-2.77
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.00Points / drive1.88
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00835Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:541078Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 5:0539Punt3–0
SEAQ1 2:59610Punt3–0
ARIQ1 1:05879Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 11:08775Touchdown10–3
ARIQ2 7:061068Field goal10–6
SEAQ2 1:571156Field goal13–6
SEAQ3 15:00420Punt13–6
ARIQ3 12:47487Touchdown13–13
SEAQ3 10:33610Punt13–13
ARIQ3 6:32530Punt13–13
SEAQ3 3:3738Punt13–13
ARIQ3 2:061266Touchdown13–20
SEAQ4 9:4833Punt13–20
ARIQ4 8:201250Missed field goal13–20
SEAQ4 2:56467Touchdown21–20
ARIQ4 1:54842Missed field goal21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2818920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III17784.60
Zach Charbonnet5326.40
Geno Smith3289.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett24711
Will Dissly33461
Zach Charbonnet22280
Jaxon Smith-Njigba35140
DK Metcalf16100
Jake Bobo1190
Colby Parkinson3480
Kenneth Walker III1130

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3026210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner271505.61
Kyler Murray5336.60
Michael Carter4174.30
Rondale Moore155.00
Clayton Tune111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson66950
James Conner44540
Trey McBride36341
Elijah Higgins22320
Rondale Moore45310
Greg Dortch24140
Michael Carter1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.02