Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.055
- 44.6%Success rate41.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.54CPOE-2.77
- 36.3%Third-down rate39.6%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.00Points / drive1.88
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/28 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/30 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 27 | 150 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.02