Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.032
- 41.0%Success rate44.6%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.77CPOE+1.54
- 39.6%Third-down rate36.3%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 1.88Points / drive2.00
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 19/33 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/24 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Jake Bobo | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.28