2023 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

10·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.032
  • 41.0%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.77CPOE+1.54
  • 39.6%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.00
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:17841Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:4835Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:48361Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 4:4741Punt0–7
ARIQ1 3:1934Field goal3–7
SEAQ1 1:57727Punt3–7
ARIQ2 13:38985Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 9:1100Touchdown10–7
SEAQ2 9:111071Touchdown10–14
ARIQ2 4:411451Turnover on downs10–14
SEAQ3 15:001272Field goal10–17
ARIQ3 7:3738Punt10–17
SEAQ3 5:24518Turnover10–17
ARIQ3 2:31512Punt10–17
SEAQ4 14:3927Turnover10–17
ARIQ4 14:04432Missed field goal10–17
SEAQ4 11:063-2Punt10–17
ARIQ4 9:311017Turnover on downs10–17
SEAQ4 4:58825Field goal10–20
ARIQ4 2:17619Turnover on downs10–20
SEAQ4 1:0600End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs19/3314600
Clayton Tune1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado13584.50
Joshua Dobbs7436.11
Rondale Moore4246.00
Damien Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown37490
Trey McBride36290
Michael Wilson35260
Zach Ertz34190
Emari Demercado45170
Geoff Swaim1180
Rondale Moore2420
Elijah Higgins1100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2421921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III261054.00
Geno Smith6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba47631
Jake Bobo45611
Tyler Lockett45380
Colby Parkinson22260
Noah Fant11250
Kenneth Walker III2360
DeeJay Dallas1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.28