Closing spread
ARI -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.081
- 44.8%Success rate40.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.46CPOE-1.70
- 37.4%Third-down rate35.4%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.05Points / drive1.60
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 26/34 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 26 | 109 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/35 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 8 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01