2022 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

31·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.8%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.46CPOE-1.70
  • 37.4%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.60
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00829Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 10:50983Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 6:1733Punt3–7
ARIQ1 4:5239Punt3–7
SEAQ1 3:071377Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 11:59614Punt10–7
SEAQ2 8:2444Turnover on downs10–7
ARIQ2 6:4136Punt10–7
SEAQ2 5:47531Punt10–7
ARIQ2 2:511166Turnover10–7
SEAQ2 0:15352End of half10–7
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt10–7
SEAQ3 13:223-4Punt10–7
ARIQ3 11:153-7Punt10–13
SEAQ3 9:2610Opp touchdown10–14
SEAQ3 9:181370Touchdown17–14
ARIQ3 2:4364Punt17–14
SEAQ4 14:181381Touchdown24–14
ARIQ4 7:321581Touchdown24–21
SEAQ4 3:32580Touchdown31–21
ARIQ4 2:1440Turnover on downs31–21
SEAQ4 1:0000End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith26/3427521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III261094.22
Geno Smith6386.30
Travis Homer177.00
DeeJay Dallas144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant56960
Tyler Lockett55671
DK Metcalf56371
Travis Homer33250
Will Dissly34240
Kenneth Walker III34200
Colby Parkinson2260
Dee Eskridge0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray25/3517520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray8607.50
James Conner7456.40
Eno Benjamin4123.00
Greg Dortch133.00
Keaontay Ingram122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rondale Moore810690
Zach Ertz58401
DeAndre Hopkins45361
James Conner55190
Eno Benjamin11150
Greg Dortch1100
Robbie Chosen13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01