Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.036
- 43.0%Success rate46.6%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.10CPOE+4.54
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.88Points / drive2.22
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/44 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
| Kedon Slovis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 13 | 127 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 12 | 33 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 10/12 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| George Holani | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 6 | 93 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Kallerup | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.42