2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

22·44

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.0%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.10CPOE+4.54
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.22
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA
2022 · W6ARI @ SEA9–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00765Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:55314Opp touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 9:22518Punt0–14
SEAQ1 6:141066Touchdown0–21
ARIQ1 1:234-7Opp touchdown0–28
ARIQ2 14:0847Punt0–28
SEAQ2 12:17779Touchdown0–35
ARIQ2 8:331164Turnover on downs0–35
SEAQ2 4:1721Turnover0–35
ARIQ2 3:2738Touchdown7–35
SEAQ2 2:50535Field goal7–38
ARIQ2 1:37729Punt7–38
SEAQ2 0:4400End of half7–38
ARIQ3 15:001778Turnover on downs7–38
SEAQ3 9:4810Turnover7–38
ARIQ3 9:39419Touchdown15–38
SEAQ3 8:42411Turnover15–38
ARIQ3 6:38616Turnover on downs15–38
SEAQ3 4:321279Field goal15–41
ARIQ4 11:54884Touchdown22–41
SEAQ4 9:50630Field goal22–44
ARIQ4 5:3135Punt22–44
SEAQ4 4:03312End of half22–44

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/4425820
Kedon Slovis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado46416.00
Jacoby Brissett4317.80
Bam Knight10282.80
Michael Carter341.30
Greg Dortch221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride9131271
Emari Demercado34400
Michael Wilson47340
Marvin Harrison Jr.312331
Elijah Higgins23190
Bam Knight1450
Zay Jones0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold10/1217811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet14835.91
Kenneth Walker III14674.80
George Holani7314.41
Rashid Shaheed22010.00
AJ Barner231.50
Sam Darnold3-2-0.70
Drew Lock4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba56931
Cooper Kupp22740
Elijah Arroyo1150
Rashid Shaheed1130
Kenneth Walker III1130
Nick Kallerup0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.42