2003 · Week 3 · Division
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.061
- 41.7%Success rate40.4%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 32.9%Third-down rate34.4%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 0.93Points / drive1.45
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/39 | 276 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 28 | 126 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 23/45 | 348 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.34