Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.049
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.053
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate44.6%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.33Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:41 | 7 | 68 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:02 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 2:17 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:47 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q2 10:30 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 6:11 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 1:46 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 0:01 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q3 13:53 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q3 12:25 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q3 10:04 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q3 3:26 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q3 1:53 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q4 13:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q4 10:32 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| PIT | Q4 5:54 | 10 | 58 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 21/34 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/24 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81