Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.049
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.053
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate44.6%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.33Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 21/34 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/24 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81