Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
47
Model margin
+3.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 11:59 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:29 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:49 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 3:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:02 | 14 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q2 9:10 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:15 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q2 2:21 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| SEA | Q3 10:48 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LA | Q3 7:56 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| SEA | Q3 3:52 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:10 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| SEA | Q4 13:49 | 12 | 47 | Missed field goal | 23–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:52 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 23–17 |
| SEA | Q4 5:27 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 23–17 |
| LA | Q4 4:12 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| SEA | Q4 3:15 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| LA | Q4 1:00 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 23–24 |
| SEA | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/39 | 256 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.