Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.036
- 52.2%Success rate46.6%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.137
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.076
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.65CPOE+4.54
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.67Points / drive2.22
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/35 | 374 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 14 | 165 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 25/36 | 346 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| George Holani | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 12 | 153 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| George Holani | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.56