2025 · CON · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

27·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.036
  • 52.2%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.137
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.076
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.65CPOE+4.54
  • 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.22
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA
2022 · W13SEA @ LA27–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
LAQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:33781Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 9:57547Field goal3–7
SEAQ1 8:151266Field goal3–10
LAQ1 0:54733Field goal6–10
SEAQ2 12:11411Punt6–10
LAQ2 9:181287Touchdown13–10
SEAQ2 1:5532Punt13–10
LAQ2 1:3335Punt13–10
SEAQ2 0:54679Touchdown13–17
LAQ2 0:20225End of half13–17
SEAQ3 15:0057Punt13–23
SEAQ3 12:07117Touchdown13–24
LAQ3 12:02475Touchdown20–24
SEAQ3 9:41965Touchdown20–31
LAQ3 4:52777Touchdown27–31
SEAQ3 2:06824Punt27–31
LAQ4 12:181579Turnover on downs27–31
SEAQ4 4:541244Punt27–31
LAQ4 0:25244End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3537430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Corum9556.10
Kyren Williams10393.90
Matthew Stafford2168.00
Puka Nacua144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9141651
Davante Adams46891
Colby Parkinson34620
Blake Corum33240
Kyren Williams22221
Tyler Higbee11120
Ronnie Rivers0100
Konata Mumpfield0200
Terrance Ferguson0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold25/3634630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III19623.31
Sam Darnold393.00
George Holani341.30
Rashid Shaheed100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba10121531
Rashid Shaheed13510
Kenneth Walker III44490
Cooper Kupp46361
George Holani34270
Jake Bobo12171
AJ Barner23130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.56