Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.042
- 44.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.022
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.54CPOE-3.54
- 36.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.00Points / drive2.13
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 22/34 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2/6 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/31 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Zach Evans | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.78